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Sunday, 3 April 2011

Who will master Augusta?

The 75th Masters tees off Thursday
Magnolias are blossoming, brightly coloured azaleas are adorning perfectly manicured fairways and a green jacket awaits in the Butler Cabin. It can only mean one thing; golf's most prestigious tournament is finally upon us, as all eyes turn to Augusta National for the 75th staging of the US Masters.

The golfing equivalent of a child's trip to Walt Disney, this course really is a magic kingdom. Something of a holy grail for golfers, the goose bumps emerge as soon as you drive down Magnolia Lane and see the Masters logo nestled innocently on the lawn by the clubhouse. The only Major to be played on the same circuit since Bobby Jones' memorable course design in 1933, Augusta holds a very special place in our hearts because of the memories it has provided us with down the years.

A tradition like no other

From remarkable feats and unbelievable shots - including Jack Nicklaus' historic sixth Masters title in 1986, and Tiger Woods' stunning chip on the 16th which famously paused for Nike promotion before falling into the cup in 2005 - to spectacular meltdowns such as Scott Hoch's missed 30-inch putt in 1989 and Greg Norman's final-round 78 in 1996, the tournament has witnessed all the highs and lows of world-class golf.

Woods' incredible chip-in on 16th in 2005
It is not just the memories that make this one special, however, as golf and nature come together to witness something truly incredible. With breathtaking bursts of colour at every turn, echoing roars through pine trees and a picturesque Amen corner featuring the scenic Hogan's Bridge, the Masters has our undivided attention for all four days. Other unique characteristics include a par 3 contest on the eve of the first round, white jumpsuits and green caps for caddies and Arnold Palmer firing the opening shot of the tournament.

But trumping them all is the coveted green jacket presented to the winner, symbolising a golfer's entry into the exclusive club. Quite possibly the most recognised trait in the tournament, it is a prized possession worn by the greatest golfers of all time. The champion also receives a substantial seven-figure sum, silver replica of the clubhouse and honorary membership - but just who will be packing their bags with all these accolades on Sunday night?

The winning formula

It takes a mixed bunch of attributes to master Augusta National. The champion will need to be at the top of his game throughout, ooze confidence from day one and embrace his sense of destiny on Sunday's back nine. On top of all that, this special golfer will need his fair share of luck - a drive that hops out off the rough and into the fairway or a putt that uses all of the hole instead of lipping out.

But my idea winner of the 75th Masters will be someone who hits it long and putts it strong. There are some holes at Augusta where you can get away with an errant drive and judging by recent results, you need to be a bomber to win here now; five of the last seven champions have driven the ball in excess of 300 yards on average. With treacherous greens likely to be running at a rapid 12 on the stimpmeter, it will be imperative to hit short irons into tricky-positioned flagsticks over the weekend.

Don't get me wrong it will take nerve and skill to get the job done on Sunday but it will also require a steady hand and silky smooth putting stroke when tension reaches its peak. Finding the middle of the green instead of getting too aggressive will be an ideal play and eliminating three putts from outside 30 feet will be vital.

Power hitters

Watney can win first Major title
So we have established the big boys of golf are likely to have an advantage around the 7,345 yards course this week - but just who are we talking about? Well let's start with three in-form Americans - Nick Watney, Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson.

Watney is without doubt the hottest property on the market, having racked up five top 10 finishes in his first six starts this season - with victory coming at the WGC-Cadillac Championship four weeks ago. The phrase 'drive to show and putt for dough' could not be more appropriate for the red-hot Californian, who currently ranks first in birdie average, second in putting average and 16th in driving distance on the US Tour. He also quite likes this event too - tied 11th in 2008, 19th in 2009 and seventh in 2010. The three-time PGA Tour winner is a much different player to the one we saw blow a final-round lead at the US PGA in August, so it would come as no surprise if he landed a first Major title on Sunday.

Johnson is another player who looks set to become a maiden Major champion. Like Watney, he surrendered a final-round lead at last year's US Open, but he also had one of the most unfortunate breaks the game has ever seen at the US PGA. The four-time PGA Tour winner did not know he was in a bunker when playing his second shot to the final hole at Whistling Straits, and was awarded a two-shot penalty after grounding his club - a ruling that cost him making the playoff. But the 6ft 4in power hitter, who ranks second in driving distance, has responded well ever since by recording a victory at the BMW Championship and numerous top five finishes in the last five months.

And finally, let's assess Watson. No, not two-time Masters champion Tom, but Bubba - the biggest hitter in the field. The left hander probably had the best chance of all three to land a Major last year when defeated by Martin Kaymer in the US PGA playoff. With drives set to fly well over 310 yards on average, Watson, who has chosen to wear all white attire this week, will be hitting sand wedges into holes where some are hitting eight irons. And let's not forget this guy can play too, having recorded his second career PGA Tour title earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open - perhaps this was an early omen since Augusta was created on the farm lands of Georgia.

European contingent

But for the first time in 18 years, it is the Europeans who occupy the top four spots at the summit of the golfing world, in Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald and Graeme McDowell – a statistic that accurately reflects what has been true for the past eight months. All four clearly have a chance this week, but on current form you would have to select Donald as the leading light for a first European victory at the Masters since Jose Maria Olazabal's feat in 1999.

Donald ready to break his duck in Majors
The 33-year-old, who became a father for the first time when his wife Diane gave birth to their daughter, Elle, has been in the form of his life since the birth in February 2010, with two victories and 15 top-10s. He was instrumental in Europe's Ryder Cup success at Celtic Manor in September, vindicating captain Colin Montgomerie's wildcard pick by winning three out of four points, and has recorded nine top 10s in his last ten outings on the US and European circuits - including his biggest career win at the WGC-Accenture Match Play in February.

However, the one thing missing from his impressive resume, just as it is for Westwood, is Major glory - the yardstick by which true greatness is measured. He has flirted with the leaderboard in all four Majors but has only notched four top 10s in 30 attempts. His best performance at Augusta dates back to 2005 with a tie for third - having slipped down the leaderboard with a second-round 77, Donald covered the last eight holes of his final round in six-under par. 

What he lacks in length off the tee, he makes up for with accurate iron play, which two-time Major champion and NBC analyst Johnny Miller describes as the best in the world. Some critics believe Donald cannot win the Masters because of his lack of fire power from the tee, but the Englishman quickly put that theory to bed when beating the world's best on a longer 7,600-yard Dove Mountain course earlier this year. Ranked in the top 10 for sand-saves, putts-per-greens in regulation and scrambling on the PGA Tour this season - other notable skills required to master Augusta - Donald will believe he has every chance of ending his Major hoodoo.

Another Englishman to watch closely this week is Justin Rose - a player who appears to be blooming just in time with two consecutive top five finishes on the PGA Tour. Thirteen years since appearing on our television screens when holing out his second shot to the last at Royal Birkdale, Rose finally looks set to fulfil his potential. After recording two wins in America last summer, the world number 26 has continued to look flawless this season, firing eight top 25 places in nine events. With a career-best tied fourth at the 2007 Masters under his belt and a current greens in regulation ranking of third as opposed to 119th last year, Rose will feel confident of becoming our first home grown winner of the Masters since Nick Faldo landed his hat-trick in 1996.

The masters of Augusta

But to talk about the Masters and not mention Phil Mickelson and Woods would be like going on a summer holiday without taking your swim shorts. The two big-hitting masters of Augusta have won six of the last 10 renewals, with Mickelson returning as defending champion. They both love this course; it is the one event where no matter how well they are playing, the memories return and inspire them to perform - and there was no better example than last year.

Mickelson is the defending champion
Mickelson had been struggling to that point in the year – his best effort a tie for eighth at Pebble Beach. He was doing the best he could to help his wife and mother as they battled breast cancer simultaneously. Golf could easily have taken a back seat for much of the year, but not at Augusta. Unlike any individual in the last decade, Mickelson had the Masters in his veins and sprinted away from the chasing pack.

Likewise, Woods returned to competitive golf at last year's Masters with the media and the world tracking his every move. The former five-year world number one could have easily been excused for a lack of focus but like the true champion he is, rose to the occasion and finished tied fourth.

But after a shaky start to the 2011 PGA Tour season with just two top tens in seven events, three-time Masters champion Mickelson threw away the form book and powered home to win the Shell Houston Open by three shots on Sunday - a timely boost for a player heading into his favourite Major championship of the season. The words 'Phil Mickelson' and 'Masters Champion' have gone together like strawberries and cream at Wimbledon in recent years, and you would have to say he is the clear favourite judging by an emphatic performance in Texas where he shot -16 on the weekend. If Mickelson does slip on the green jacket on Sunday, he would match Woods' four Masters titles and record an impressive 50% winning strike rate at Augusta in the last eight years.

For Woods, however, the story is a little different. There have been glimpses of brilliance but at the same time, they have been overshadowed by poor putting and wayward drives. Consistency has also been a problem for the 97-time winner. The last time he shot four rounds in the 60s was when he won his last PGA Tour event at the BMW Championship in 2009. Woods may not win this week, he may not even come close - but have a little faith in the world's greatest ever golfer who can produce magic at any given time, especially around golf's greatest venue.

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